Update on Georgia vs. Russia

UPDATED: Are Russia and Georgia on the verge of all out war? Tensions have been growing for the last few years, but the situation has deteriorated rapidly in the last twenty-four hours and fighting along the border has broken out. Most serious so far: Russian fighter jets have bombed two towns in neighboring Georgia, killing and injuring innocent civilians, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said Friday. [At 9:35am eastern, Fox News reported that Georgia had shot down four Russian fighter jets....an hour ago, the New York Times reported that two Russian jets had been shot down, something AP reported as well....AP is now also running this headline: "Russia Invades Georgia."....at 10:47am eastern, AP reported hundreds dead in fighting....Sen. McCain has just called on Russia to halt its action in Georgia and withdraw....]
One critical issue to watch as the crisis develops: Who is really in charge in Moscow, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin or newly installed President Dmitry Medvedev? For the moment, it seems to be Putin who is calling the shots and speaking out most forcefully on the crisis with Georgia. Putin, of course, believes deeply in restoring the glory of Mother Russia. He certainly does not want to lose Russian territory and is determined to expand the Russian empire. As I have written about previously, he knows he cannot expand Russia westward because NATO is expanding eastward. Putin also knows he cannot expand Russia eastward because of China. He has claimed ownership of the North Pole, but the real opportunity for Russia is to expand southward, and that is where Putin has been focusing all of his attention in recent years. He is determined to control the Caucuses region, and South Ossetia -- though not a name or place most Westerners have ever heard of much less cared about -- is a key piece in Putin's southward strategy. Interestingly, a new poll finds that four times more Russians think Putin is the most powerful man in Moscow than Medvedev, and tensions between the two men have been growing all summer.

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